Modelling complexity within agriculture using a dynamic sustainability assessment tool

Abstract

In this work, a novel, dynamic sustainability assessment tool is presented and validated in a case study. This tool combines two methods—system dynamics (SD) and temporal soil carbon modelling. The case study for sustainability analysis of Danish agriculture and green biorefineries supply chains is used. Thus, the model covers significant feed flows for animals and animal production, as well as limiting factors in the system, such as the ecosystem’s carrying capacity, total available land area, normative regulations, and time delays in decision-making. The development of the Danish agriculture sector is simulated and assessed in relation to the ecosystem’s carrying capacity until 2050, defined as 1.4 livestock units per hectare.