Societal Perceptions in Transition from a Borderland to a Frontline: Latvia’s Latgale During the War in Ukraine

Abstract

This article follows a peculiar case of a sub-national region transitioning from an almost ordinary Western-Russia borderland to a frontline region during Russia’s war in Ukraine (since 2022 and ongoing). The region in question is Latgale, one of Latvia’s historical regions on the European Union’s (EU’s) edge, bordering not only Russia but also Belarus. The region has the highest share of Russian speakers among Latvia’s historical regions and the least favourable economic situation. For these and other reasons, Latgale has often been denoted as a potentially fruitful place for Russia’s destabilization acts. This article is one of the few studies and the first after Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine exploring societal perceptions and risks from the national security perspective in this frontline region. Data from three nationally representative surveys reveal that Latgale remains the most distinct of Latvia’s historical regions, also regarding national security since there is the lowest willingness to fight for Latvia and the lowest acknowledgement of Russia’s guilt over the war in Ukraine.