Interdisciplinary study of the medium-term fertility trend in Latvia (1970–2022)*

Abstract

The article aims at identifying the medium-term fertility trend in Latvia. The main research question is whether it is possible in the near future to increase fertility in Latvia, as planned in the “Strategy for the Reproduction of the Nation FAMILY — LATVIA — 2030 (2050)”. The authors conducted the mathematical analysis of fertility in Latvia for the medium-term period of 1970–2022 (53 years), which includes two decades of the so-called “Soviet era” and the period of independence after the collapse of the USSR. The study is based on the available data of the official Latvian statistics on the total fertility rate. The novelty of this interdisciplinary — demographic, economic and sociological — study is determined by the use of mathematical analysis to identify demographic trends, which is not typical for the publications of Latvian and foreign researchers. The study is also based on the theory of economic cycles to identify demographic fertility cycles and their phases in Latvia and to predict fertility rates in Latvia for the near future. Furthermore, the analysis of the sociological surveys data allowed to understand the main reason for the steady — in the medium-term perspective — linear decline in fertility in Latvia. This reason is value changes in the society, in which children are no longer at the center of the life value system of men and especially women in Latvia, i.e., are no longer considered necessary for the realization of their life goals and ambitions. Based on the results of the mathematical analysis of the medium-term fertility trend in Latvia, the authors believe that the decline in fertility in Latvia will continue for several more years before the bottom of the next demographic fertility cycle will be reached (and this bottom will be lower than the previous one, i.e., below 1.22 –1.25), and there will be an upturn in a linearly declining fertility trend. However, even this expected rise will not reach the previous peak; the next peak is likely to be below 1.74. Thus, the desired and even expected by the creators of the “Strategy for the Reproduction of the Nation” increase in fertility in Latvia to the level of 1.77 by 2027 is considered by the authors unattainable.