Elites konsensa faktors ASV ārpolitikā pret Irānu Donalda Trampa administrācjias laikā
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Date
2020
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Rīgas Stradiņa universitāte
Rīga Stradiņš University
Rīga Stradiņš University
Abstract
Šī darba nosaukums ir elites konsensa faktora ietekme uz ASV ārpolitiku attiecībā pret Irānu Donalda Trampa administrācijas laikā.
Donalds Tramps 2016. gada martā nāca pie varas ASV caur ļoti saspringtu vēlēšanu kampaņu. Kopš tā brīža, pēc kampaņas norises, bija skaidrs, ka D. Tramps nav gluži parasts prezidents. Viņam ir savs runas stils, tas ir agresīvs, viņam patīk daudz solīt, taču tad nebija līdz galam skaidrs, vai viņa solījumi tik tiešām attaisnotos.
Jau kopš prezidentūras pirmajiem mēnešiem bija labi redzams, ka D. Tramps ASV politikā centīsies ieviest savas izmaiņas, centīsies to mainīt pēc saviem ieskatiem. Tomēr, neviens nevarēja paredzēt, ka viņa politika noslēgsies pie viņa viedokļa. Šis prezidents sevi parādīja kā tādu, kuram ir stingrs viedoklis, un kurš īsti nevēlas uzklausīt citu domas. Tad sāka palikt skaidrs, ka D. Tramps mainīs ASV politiku, rīkosies ar to, kā vien vēlēsies. Parādījās problēma, kuru daudzi nevarēja paredzēt, bija jāsaprot, kā lai turpmāk veido ASV politiku, ja ir prezidents, kuram ir ļoti sarežģīti kaut ko iestāstīt, un panākt, lai tas nesabojātu līdz šim izveidoto ASV politiku un tās stāvokli. Galvenais bija panākt, ka viss, pie kā līdz tam brīdim bija strādāts, un uz kādiem mērķiem bija iets, nesabrūk uzreiz. Šīs problēmas esamību pārbaudīt var pielīdzinot to kādam ļoti svarīgam punktam ASV politikā mūsdienās, tā, pēc autora domām, ir Irāna un situācija Tuvo Austrumu reģionā.
Darbā tika izvirzīta hipotēze - elites konsensa faktora neesamība negatīvi ietekmē ASV ārpolitisko mērķu sasniegšanu attiecībās ar Irānu Donalda Trampa prezidentūras laikā. Šī hipotēze tika pārbaudīta veicot dažādu ASV ārpolitiku veidojošo institūciju viedokļu analīzi, un pēc tam apskatot, šo viedokļu sakritību savā starpā, lai noteiktu, kas bija cēlonis šim konfliktam un kādas var būt sekas, gan uzreiz, gan ilgtermiņā. Šīs institūcijas, svarīgākās ASV ārpolitikas veidotājas, ir Prezidenta institūcija, ASV Aizsardzības departaments un Kongress.
Darba pirmajā nodaļā tiek apskatīta neoklasiskā reālisma teorija, un precīzāk, ārpolitiku ietekmējošie iekšējie un ārējie faktori, kā arī, tiek nodalīts viens faktors, kas ir vissvarīgākais, runājot tieši par ASV politikas veidošanas procesu – elites konsensa faktors. Darba otrajā nodaļā autors apskata ASV kopējās ārpolitiskās intereses, izvirzot problēmas un galvenos fokusa punktus. Darba trešajā nodaļā autors daudz dziļāk analizē elites konsensa faktoru ASV politikas veidošanā kopumā, un apskata, kādu ietekmi tā neesamība (vai esamība?) ir radījusi uz situāciju un attiecībām ar Irānu un šo attiecību nākotni, un vai šāda problēma nevarētu sagraut ASV valsts politiskos mērķus reģionā.
The name of this research is elite consensus in U.S. politics during the presidency of Donald Trump and its effect on the making of foreign policy against Iran. Donald Trump came to power in March of 2016 through a very tense election. Since then, looking at how the election went, it was clear that D. Trump is not your everyday president. He has his own style of speech, aggressive. He also likes to promise a lot. However, it was not yet evident, would those promises really fulfil themselves. Since the first months of the presidency, it became even clearer, that D. Trump would bring his own way of politics into the policymaking of U.S. Although, nobody could anticipate that the policymaking of U.S. would completely shut down at the point where his opinion came into power. This president showed himself as one, that has a strong opinion that could barely ever change when conflicted with another one’s opinion. It looked like D. Trump would change the politics of U.S., he would do anything he would like to, with it. A problem was noticed, that many would not have foreseen, the politics of U.S. needed to be put in place, a system needed to be made in order for them to work properly, and not let the president do as he likes and not listen to anybody of the policy makers. The goals that were set before this, needed to be completed, they could not be left alone. This had to be the main object of focus for the policy makers of the U.S. The best way to check if this problem still exists and what are the consequences, is to analyze it through a case study – Iran and the Middle East. The hypothesis provided in this research is – the absence of elite consensus has a negative effect on goals set for the foreign policy of U.S. and in relations with Iran, during the presidency of Donald Trump. This is being checked through analyzing the opinions of different foreign policy makers of U.S. and seeing if they coincide, so it would be possible to see the consequences in the short and long term. These three institutions that the author is using are Presidents institution, Department of Defense and Congress. The first chapter of the research looks at neoclassical realism to put forward the inner and outer factors of influence to the foreign policy of U.S. One main factor is put as the most important one – elite consensus, as this factor is the most influential in the policy making of the U.S. nowadays. The second chapter explains the current state of U.S. foreign policy interests and focus points, showing problems that have come up or could come up in the future. The third chapter explains elite consensus in the policymaking of the U.S. against Iran and Middle East.
The name of this research is elite consensus in U.S. politics during the presidency of Donald Trump and its effect on the making of foreign policy against Iran. Donald Trump came to power in March of 2016 through a very tense election. Since then, looking at how the election went, it was clear that D. Trump is not your everyday president. He has his own style of speech, aggressive. He also likes to promise a lot. However, it was not yet evident, would those promises really fulfil themselves. Since the first months of the presidency, it became even clearer, that D. Trump would bring his own way of politics into the policymaking of U.S. Although, nobody could anticipate that the policymaking of U.S. would completely shut down at the point where his opinion came into power. This president showed himself as one, that has a strong opinion that could barely ever change when conflicted with another one’s opinion. It looked like D. Trump would change the politics of U.S., he would do anything he would like to, with it. A problem was noticed, that many would not have foreseen, the politics of U.S. needed to be put in place, a system needed to be made in order for them to work properly, and not let the president do as he likes and not listen to anybody of the policy makers. The goals that were set before this, needed to be completed, they could not be left alone. This had to be the main object of focus for the policy makers of the U.S. The best way to check if this problem still exists and what are the consequences, is to analyze it through a case study – Iran and the Middle East. The hypothesis provided in this research is – the absence of elite consensus has a negative effect on goals set for the foreign policy of U.S. and in relations with Iran, during the presidency of Donald Trump. This is being checked through analyzing the opinions of different foreign policy makers of U.S. and seeing if they coincide, so it would be possible to see the consequences in the short and long term. These three institutions that the author is using are Presidents institution, Department of Defense and Congress. The first chapter of the research looks at neoclassical realism to put forward the inner and outer factors of influence to the foreign policy of U.S. One main factor is put as the most important one – elite consensus, as this factor is the most influential in the policy making of the U.S. nowadays. The second chapter explains the current state of U.S. foreign policy interests and focus points, showing problems that have come up or could come up in the future. The third chapter explains elite consensus in the policymaking of the U.S. against Iran and Middle East.
Description
Starptautiskās attiecības - Eiropas studijas
International Relations - European Studies
Socioloģija, politoloģija un antropoloģija
Sociology, Politics and Anthropology
International Relations - European Studies
Socioloģija, politoloģija un antropoloģija
Sociology, Politics and Anthropology
Keywords
Donalds Tramps, ASV, Ārpolitika, Elites konsenss, Donald Trump, USA, Foreign policy, Elite consensus