Iekšējie un ārējie faktori Austrālijas lēmumā pievienoties Austrālijas-Lielbritānijas-ASV trīspusējam drošības partnerības paktam (AUKUS)
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Date
2022
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Rīgas Stradiņa universitāte
Rīga Stradiņš University
Rīga Stradiņš University
Abstract
Maģistra darba tēma ir “Iekšējie un ārējie faktori Austrālijas lēmumā pievienoties Austrālijas-Lielbritānijas-ASV trīspusējam drošības partnerības paktam (AUKUS)”. Viena no pēdējās dekādēs būtiskākajām norisēm starptautiskajā politikā, ir Ķīnas ietekmes pieaugums. It īpaši šis pieaugums liek valstīm Indijas un Klusā okeāna, kā arī globālā mērogā meklēt veidus, kā uz to reaģēt. Arī Austrālija ir viena no valstīm, kam nepieciešams definēt savu nostāju uz Ķīnas pieaugošo ekonomisko un militāro aktivitāti reģionā. Pēdējos gados var ievērot arvien vairāk pazīmju tam, ka Austrālija ir izvēlējusies Ķīnas līdzsvarošanas ceļu savā ārpolitikā. Ņemot vērā Austrālijas un Ķīnas ekonomiskās un militārās jaudas samērus, kas ir par labu Ķīnai, lai šo virzienu īstenotu, Austrālijai nepieciešams meklēt sabiedrotos, lai stiprinātu tās militārās un ekonomiskās kapacitātes. Viens no prioritārajiem virzieniem Austrālijas Ķīnas līdzsvarošanas politikā ir Jūras spēku flotes attīstīšana. Meklējot partnerus savu Jūras spēku tehnoloģisko kapacitāšu veicināšanā, Austrālija bija izveidojusi ciešu sadarbību ar Franciju, tai skaitā zemūdeņu iepirkumam. Tomēr 2021. gada rudenī tika pieņemti krasi lēmumi par šīs sadarbības deprioritizāciju, un tā vietā Austrālija iesaistījās AUKUS formātā ar Lielbritāniju un ASV, kas, tai skaitā, paredz arī militāro sadarbību, kas attiecas uz Austrālijas Jūras spēku attīstību un ar kodolenerģiju darbināmu zemūdeņu būvniecību. Šie notikumi raisa jautājumus par to, kāpēc tiek pieņemti šādi krasi ārpolitiski lēmumi. Austrālijas ārējais ģeopolitiskais konteksts netika krasi mainījies, tāpēc atbildes tiek meklētas Austrālijas iekšpolitiskajā transformācijā, kur lēmumu pieņēmēji ir nonākuši pie citiem priekšstatiem par to, kāda rīcība precīzāk atbilstu valsts nacionālajām interesēm un drošībai. Lai izprastu šo transformāciju, maģistra darba ietvaros tiek analizēti ārējie un iekšējie faktori, ar fokusu uz politiskās elites vienprātības faktoru. Ar dokumentu analīzes metodi tiek pētīti primāri un sekundāri avoti, kas atspoguļo dažādu Austrālijas ārpolitikas veidošanā iesaistītu institūciju un indivīdu rīcību un izteikumus attiecībā pret pētāmo objektu. Darbs sastāv no četrām daļām: 1) pētījuma teorētiskais ietvars saskaņā ar neoklasiskā reālisma teoriju, īpaši izceļot politiskās elites vienprātības faktoru; 2) Konteksts par Ķīnas faktoru Austrālijas ārpolitikā; 3) Konteksts par AUKUS formāta izveidi; 4) Austrālijas politiskās elites priekšstatu maiņas par prioritārajiem partneriem analīze. No veiktā pētījuma tiek secināts, ka jautājums par Austrālijas industrijas iesaistes apjoma sarukumu raisīja viedokļu šķelšanos starp galvenajiem Austrālijā valdošajiem politiskajiem spēkiem – Liberāļiem un Leiboristiem. Savukārt, AUKUS formāts saņem divpartejisku atbalstu. Kā arī Austrālijas premjerministrs mainīja viedokli par prioritārajiem partneriem, un jau ilgākā laika posmā meklēja iespēju atteikties no Francijas iepirkuma, nodrošinot adekvātu alternatīvu.
The title of the master’s thesis is “Internal and External Factors in Australia’s Decision to Join the Australia-UK-US Trilateral Security Partnership Pact (AUKUS)”. One of the most significant developments of international politics in the last decades is China’s growing influence. China’s increasing regional importance makes countries in the Indo-Pacific but also globally seek for ways how to react. Australia is also one of the countries experiencing the need to define their position due to China’s rising economic and military activity in the region. Lately there are more and more signs that Australia has chosen the balancing strategy in their foreign policy. Given the balance of economic and military power between Australia and China, which is clearly in China's favor, Australia needs to seek allies to strengthen its military and economic capabilities. One of the priorities in Australia's balancing policy is development of the Navy. In search of partners that could help develop their naval technological capacities, Australia was working closely with France, including on submarine procurement. However, in the autumn of 2021, drastic decisions were taken to deprioritize this cooperation, and Australia became involved in the AUKUS format with UK and the USA instead, which includes military cooperation in the development of the Australian Navy and building nuclear-powered submarines. These events raise questions about why such drastic foreign policy decisions were made. Australia's external geopolitical context has not changed dramatically, so answers are sought in Australia's domestic political transformation, where decision-makers have changed their perceptions on what would be more in line with the country's national interests and security needs. To understand this transformation, for the purposes of this master’s thesis external and internal factors, with focus on elite consensus, are analyzed. Document analysis methodology is used to examine primary and secondary sources that reflect the actions and statements of various Australian foreign policy institutions and individuals in relation to the topic. The thesis consists of four parts: 1) the theoretical framework in accordance with the theory of neoclassical realism, with emphasis on elite consensus; 2) context on the China factor in the foreign policy of Australia; 3) context on the development of AUKUS; 4) analysis of the change in perceptions on priority partners of the Australian political elite. The study concludes that the issue of the declining Australian industry involvement has led to divisions between the main political forces in Australia: the Liberals and the Labor Party. In turn, the AUKUS format receives bipartisan support. The Prime Minister of Australia also changed his mind about the priority partners and had been looking for a while for ways to abandon the procurement deal with the French and provide an adequate alternative.
The title of the master’s thesis is “Internal and External Factors in Australia’s Decision to Join the Australia-UK-US Trilateral Security Partnership Pact (AUKUS)”. One of the most significant developments of international politics in the last decades is China’s growing influence. China’s increasing regional importance makes countries in the Indo-Pacific but also globally seek for ways how to react. Australia is also one of the countries experiencing the need to define their position due to China’s rising economic and military activity in the region. Lately there are more and more signs that Australia has chosen the balancing strategy in their foreign policy. Given the balance of economic and military power between Australia and China, which is clearly in China's favor, Australia needs to seek allies to strengthen its military and economic capabilities. One of the priorities in Australia's balancing policy is development of the Navy. In search of partners that could help develop their naval technological capacities, Australia was working closely with France, including on submarine procurement. However, in the autumn of 2021, drastic decisions were taken to deprioritize this cooperation, and Australia became involved in the AUKUS format with UK and the USA instead, which includes military cooperation in the development of the Australian Navy and building nuclear-powered submarines. These events raise questions about why such drastic foreign policy decisions were made. Australia's external geopolitical context has not changed dramatically, so answers are sought in Australia's domestic political transformation, where decision-makers have changed their perceptions on what would be more in line with the country's national interests and security needs. To understand this transformation, for the purposes of this master’s thesis external and internal factors, with focus on elite consensus, are analyzed. Document analysis methodology is used to examine primary and secondary sources that reflect the actions and statements of various Australian foreign policy institutions and individuals in relation to the topic. The thesis consists of four parts: 1) the theoretical framework in accordance with the theory of neoclassical realism, with emphasis on elite consensus; 2) context on the China factor in the foreign policy of Australia; 3) context on the development of AUKUS; 4) analysis of the change in perceptions on priority partners of the Australian political elite. The study concludes that the issue of the declining Australian industry involvement has led to divisions between the main political forces in Australia: the Liberals and the Labor Party. In turn, the AUKUS format receives bipartisan support. The Prime Minister of Australia also changed his mind about the priority partners and had been looking for a while for ways to abandon the procurement deal with the French and provide an adequate alternative.
Description
Starptautiskās attiecības un diplomātija
International Relations and Diplomacy
Socioloģija, politoloģija un antropoloģija
Sociology, Politics and Anthropology
International Relations and Diplomacy
Socioloģija, politoloģija un antropoloģija
Sociology, Politics and Anthropology
Keywords
AUKUS, Austrālijas ārpolitika, Ķīnas līdzsvarošana, politiskās elites vienprātība, AUKUS, Australian foreign policy, balancing China, political elite consensus