Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia : a population-level analysis of all-cause and noncommunicable disease deaths in 2020

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dc.contributor.authorGobiņa, Inese
dc.contributor.authorAvotiņš, Andris
dc.contributor.authorKojalo, Una
dc.contributor.authorStrēle, Ieva
dc.contributor.authorPildava, Santa
dc.contributor.authorVilleruša, Anita
dc.contributor.authorBriģis, Ģirts
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute of Public Health
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Public Health and Epidemiology
dc.date.accessioned2022-08-16T21:03:54Z
dc.date.available2022-08-16T21:03:54Z
dc.date.issued2022-06-03
dc.descriptionFunding Information: The study was funded by the National Research Program to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 within the project “Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the health care system and public health in Latvia; strengthening the preparedness of the health sector for future epidemics” (VPP-COVID-2020/1-0011). Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: Age-standardised noncommunicable disease (NCD) mortality and the proportion of the elderly population in Latvia are high, while public health and health care systems are underresourced. The emerging COVID-19 pandemic raised concerns about its detrimental impact on all-cause and noncommunicable disease mortality in Latvia. We estimated the timing and number of excess all-cause and cause-specific deaths in 2020 in Latvia due to COVID-19 and selected noncommunicable diseases. METHODS: A time series analysis of all-cause and cause-specific weekly mortality from COVID-19, circulatory diseases, malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, and chronic lower respiratory diseases from the National Causes of Death Database from 2015 to 2020 was used by applying generalised additive modelling (GAM) and joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: Between weeks 14 and 52 (from 1 April to 29 December) of 2020, a total of 3111 excess deaths (95% PI 1339 - 4832) were estimated in Latvia, resulting in 163.77 excess deaths per 100 000. Since September 30, with the outbreak of the second COVID-19 wave, 55% of all excess deaths have occurred. Altogether, COVID-19-related deaths accounted for only 28% of the estimated all-cause excess deaths. A significant increase in excess mortality was estimated for circulatory diseases (68.91 excess deaths per 100 000). Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were listed as the underlying cause in almost 60% of COVID-19-contributing deaths. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality and mortality from circulatory diseases significantly increased in Latvia during the first pandemic year. All-cause excess mortality substantially exceeded reported COVID-19-related deaths, implying COVID-19-related mortality during was significantly underestimated. Increasing mortality from circulatory diseases suggests a negative cumulative effect of COVID-19 exposure and reduced access to healthcare services for NCD patients.en
dc.description.statusPeer reviewed
dc.format.extent12
dc.format.extent1131163
dc.identifier.citationGobiņa, I, Avotiņš, A, Kojalo, U, Strēle, I, Pildava, S, Villeruša, A & Briģis, Ģ 2022, 'Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia : a population-level analysis of all-cause and noncommunicable disease deaths in 2020', BMC Public Health, vol. 22, no. 1, 1109. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13491-4
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12889-022-13491-4
dc.identifier.issn1471-2458
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.rsu.lv/jspui/handle/123456789/9454
dc.identifier.urlhttp://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85131627796&partnerID=8YFLogxK
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofBMC Public Health
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subjectAged
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectCardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology
dc.subjectCause of Death
dc.subjectDiabetes Mellitus/epidemiology
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectLatvia/epidemiology
dc.subjectMortality
dc.subjectNoncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology
dc.subjectPandemics
dc.subject3.3 Health sciences
dc.subject1.1. Scientific article indexed in Web of Science and/or Scopus database
dc.subjectSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
dc.titleExcess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia : a population-level analysis of all-cause and noncommunicable disease deaths in 2020en
dc.type/dk/atira/pure/researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/contributiontojournal/article

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