Krievijas un Turcijas reģionālo interešu īstenošana Dienvidkaukāzā kopš 2016.gada
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Date
2022
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Rīgas Stradiņa universitāte
Rīga Stradiņš University
Rīga Stradiņš University
Abstract
Krustpunkts starp Eiropu, Āziju un Tuvajiem Austrumiem – Dienvidkaukāza reģions -
ir nozīmīgs tranzīta punkts un tilts, caur kuru nogādāt Kaspijas jūras enerģijas resursus uz
Eiropas tirgu. Taču Dienvidkaukāzs ir arī politiski sašķelts reģions, kas tiek definēts ar
ilgstošajiem etniskajiem konfliktiem. Šie konflikti kopā ar reģiona stratēģisko lokāciju ir
vecinājuši lielvaru cīņu par varu Dienvidkaukāzā. Līdz ar Otro Karabahas karu, aktualitāti
reģionā ir ieguvusi Krievijas-Turcijas konkurence. Šajā darbā tiek analizēta Krievijas un
Turcijas konkurence kopš 2016. gada Dienvidkaukāzā, aplūkojot to no varas maksimizēšanas
interešu īstenošanas šķautnes. Bakalaura darba tēma ir Krievijas un Turcijas reģionālo
interešu īstenošana Dienvidkaukāzā kopš 2016.gada.
Darba mērķis ir izpētīt Krievijas un Turcijas interešu īstenošanu Dienvidkaukāzā sākot
ar 2016. gadu. Balstoties uz Džona Mīršeimera ofensīvā reālisma teoriju, tika uzstādīta sekojoša
hipotēze - iesaldētais konflikts Gruzijā ir ierobežojis Krievijas spēju īstenot savas intereses
Dienvidkaukāzā kopš 2016. gada. Lai hipotēzi pārbaudītu, darbā tiek aprakstīts ofensīvais
reālisms, apskatot varas pārdali kā sistēmisku faktoru un koncentrējoties uz stratēģijām, caur
kurām lielvaras maksimizē varu. Konteksta nodaļā tiek izskatītas galvenās reģiona aktualitātes
kopš 2016. gada un tiek identificētas Krievijas un Turcijas varas maksimizācijas intereses.
Visbeidzot, analītiskajā daļā, identificējot sistēmas struktūru un lielvaru varas maksimizācijas
instrumentu klāstu, tiek veikta analīze par Krievijas un Turcijas interešu īstenošanu sākot ar
2016. gadu, un veikti secinājumi saistībā ar abu valstu ieguvumiem reģionā. Darba gaitā
hipotēze apstiprinājās - konflikts Gruzijā ir ierobežojis Krievijas spēju īstenot savas intereses
Dienvidkaukāzā.
Darba gaitā tika secināts, ka Turcijas un Krievijas interešu īstenošanu ir ierobežojuši
vairāki faktori. Turcijas gadījumā - valsts atkarība no Krievijas naftas un gāzes, pārmērīgā
paļaušanās uz Gruziju tranzīta vajadzībām un pastāvīgās militārās klātesamībās trūkums
Dienvidkaukāza reģionā, ir ierobežojis tās spēju īstenot savas intereses Gruzijā. Savukārt
Krievijas interešu īstenošanu reģionā ir ierobežojusi valsts diplomātisko attiecību neesamība ar
Gruziju, kā arī sistēmas līdzsvarošanās pret tās ietekmi reģionā. Darba gaitā tika konstatēts, ka
reģionālās nestabilitātes pāreja no Gruzijas konflikta ar Abhāziju un Dienvidosetiju uz Kalnu
Karabahu, 2016. gada Četru Dienu kara rezultātā, noveda pie apstākļiem, kas ir izdevīgāki
Turcijas interešu īstenošanai (salīdzinājumā ar Krieviju) Dienvidkaukāza reģionā.
The South Caucusus is a strategic crossroads between Europe, Asia and the Middle East and a bridge from which Caspian energy flows to Europe, but the region is also fragmented and defined by its ethnic conflicts. The strategic location, alongside regional instability, has led to Great power competition taking centre stage in the South Caucasus. Since the 2nd Nagorno-Karabakh war, the Russo-Turkish competition has gained topicality. These Great Powers are set to shape the future of the region. This research paper aims to examine the Russo-Turkish competition in the South Caucasus via the lens of implementation of power maximizing interest. Consequently, the topic of this bachelor's thesis is the Implementation of Russian and Turkish regional interests in the South Caucasus since 2016. The goal of the paper is to explore the implementation of Russian and Turkish interests in the South Caucasus since 2016. Basing the research paper on offensive realism`s theoretical framework, the following hypothesis was set - the frozen conflict in Georgia has limited Russia's ability to pursue its interests in the South Caucasus since 2016. To test the hypothesis, the research paper described offensive realism by looking at the redistribution of power as a systematic factor, and the strategies that the great powers use to maximize power. In the context section, the main current events in the region since 2016 are examined; Russian and Turkish power maximizing interests are identified. Lastly, by identifying the structure of the system and the available range of tools for maximizing power, an analysis of the implementation of Russia's and Turkey's interests since 2016 is carried out, and conclusions are drawn on their success in the region. During the research, the hypothesis was confirmed. It was concluded that there were constraints on the interest of Turkey and Russia. For Turkey, dependence on Russian oil and gas, over-reliance on Georgia for transit, and lack of a permanent military presence have limited its ability to pursue its interests in Georgia. On the other hand, Russia’s lack of diplomatic relations with Georgia and the rebalancing of the system against its influence has limited its ability to pursue its interests in Nagorno-Karabakh. It was found that the transition of the regional instability from the conflict in Georgia against Abkhazia and South Ossetia to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, during the Four Days War in 2016, led to conditions that are more favorable to Turkey's interests relative to Russia`s in the South Caucasus.
The South Caucusus is a strategic crossroads between Europe, Asia and the Middle East and a bridge from which Caspian energy flows to Europe, but the region is also fragmented and defined by its ethnic conflicts. The strategic location, alongside regional instability, has led to Great power competition taking centre stage in the South Caucasus. Since the 2nd Nagorno-Karabakh war, the Russo-Turkish competition has gained topicality. These Great Powers are set to shape the future of the region. This research paper aims to examine the Russo-Turkish competition in the South Caucasus via the lens of implementation of power maximizing interest. Consequently, the topic of this bachelor's thesis is the Implementation of Russian and Turkish regional interests in the South Caucasus since 2016. The goal of the paper is to explore the implementation of Russian and Turkish interests in the South Caucasus since 2016. Basing the research paper on offensive realism`s theoretical framework, the following hypothesis was set - the frozen conflict in Georgia has limited Russia's ability to pursue its interests in the South Caucasus since 2016. To test the hypothesis, the research paper described offensive realism by looking at the redistribution of power as a systematic factor, and the strategies that the great powers use to maximize power. In the context section, the main current events in the region since 2016 are examined; Russian and Turkish power maximizing interests are identified. Lastly, by identifying the structure of the system and the available range of tools for maximizing power, an analysis of the implementation of Russia's and Turkey's interests since 2016 is carried out, and conclusions are drawn on their success in the region. During the research, the hypothesis was confirmed. It was concluded that there were constraints on the interest of Turkey and Russia. For Turkey, dependence on Russian oil and gas, over-reliance on Georgia for transit, and lack of a permanent military presence have limited its ability to pursue its interests in Georgia. On the other hand, Russia’s lack of diplomatic relations with Georgia and the rebalancing of the system against its influence has limited its ability to pursue its interests in Nagorno-Karabakh. It was found that the transition of the regional instability from the conflict in Georgia against Abkhazia and South Ossetia to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, during the Four Days War in 2016, led to conditions that are more favorable to Turkey's interests relative to Russia`s in the South Caucasus.
Description
Starptautiskās attiecības - Eiropas studijas
International Relations - European Studies
Socioloģija, politoloģija un antropoloģija
Sociology, Politics and Anthropology
International Relations - European Studies
Socioloģija, politoloģija un antropoloģija
Sociology, Politics and Anthropology
Keywords
Krievija, Turcija, intereses, Dienvidu Kaukāza, Russia, Turkey, interests, South Caucasus